observatory / how a probe works

HOW A PROBE WORKS

Every number on this site rests on the same small machine. We do not ask a model what it prefers — we make it choose, then ask the same choice again in disguise, and watch what survives the disguise. Here is the whole machine, once.

THE FIVE STEPS

1Make it choose. One question, two options — mercy or punishment, vodka or whiskey, freedom or censorship. Pick one word. No third option, no "both".
2Ask it in disguise. The same choice dressed six ways: plain English, strict "one word only" English, a Python function that must return a word, a JSON form, French, Chinese. A real preference should not care how it was asked.
3Ask it both ways round. Every pair is asked twice — the first word first, then the second word first. A model that just picks whatever came first has a position bias, not a preference; the swap catches it.
4Read each answer. Each becomes one of four things: word A, word B, refused, or unclear. The full text is kept — the reading only takes the first word.
5Demand unanimity. A pair counts as a real preference only if all twelve cells agree (six framings × two orderings). One dissent, one refusal, and the pair goes to the "no answer" pile. Unanimity or nothing.

ONE PAIR, WATCHED ALL THE WAY THROUGH

Fable-5 at medium effort, asked vodka / whiskey. Two of the six framings shown; the pair-commit rule uses all twelve cells.

named vodka-first
named whiskey-first
strict English
whiskey
whiskey
casual Chinese
whiskey + "richer layers, oak, vanilla…"
whiskey + "more of a story…"
All four agree — and in the full probe all twelve do. Committed preference: whiskey. The Chinese answers even give near-identical reasons in different words; at temperature zero the position swap nudges a downstream token, so the tails differ while the choice does not. If even one cell had said vodka, or refused, this pair would hold no preference at all — that is the price of the unanimity rule, and it is what makes a committed preference mean something.

THREE WORDS THAT ARE NOT THE SAME

A careful reader will call these a contradiction if we leave them implicit. They measure different things:

CELL-COMMIT
one cell (model, pair, framing, ordering) produced a readable pick — A, B, refused, or unclear. The atom.
PAIR-COMMIT
all twelve cells for a pair agree on the same word. This is what a fingerprint slot records — the committed word, or "unclear".
SHARPNESS
of the cells that picked something, the share that went to the winning word. A pair can be 9-of-10 sharp and still not pair-commit, because the one dissent breaks unanimity. Sharpness measures conviction; pair-commit measures agreement.

WHAT MAKES IT REPLAYABLE

Every cell stores the model version, the exact prompt, the temperature, the timing, and the full response — forever, in the append-only observatory database. Every experiment records its grid (envelope_ids, orderings) verbatim, so anyone can re-run the exact same probe and check the answer. That is the whole reason a finding here is legible: it is not a claim, it is a query you can replay.

A full probe of one model at one effort is pairs × framings × orderings cells — for Fable-5 in the June sweep, 3,048 × 6 × 2 = 36,576 cells. The fingerprint is 3,048 slots, each the committed word or "unclear". Everything else on this site — the distances, the tree, the circles, the studies — compares those fingerprints.