eleven rows of the scan are Opus — releases 4.0 through 4.8, plus the same
weights scanned twice. that redundancy is the control group the whole observatory stands on:
before you can say two models differ, you need to know how much one model differs from itself.
THE NOISE FLOOR — SAME WEIGHTS, SCANNED TWICE
Read the right-hand number: same weights, re-scanned, produce zero violent
disagreements — over hundreds of shared commitments, a model never reverses its own
committed choice. All of the hamming distance between replicates is abstention flicker:
probes where one run spoke and the other stayed quiet. The two metrics calibrate each other:
a hamming difference inside the floor below may be noise; a violent rate above zero never
is.
THE STRANGE SILENCE OF 4.1
nearest by hamming (counts silence)
nearest by violent rate (counts speech)
An instrument can be perfectly truthful and still lie by scope. Every number
in the left column is real — and it files 4.1 next to models it has nothing in common with,
because heavy abstainers "agree" in their shared silence. The right column counts only the
probes where both models actually spoke, and the picture inverts. Say what your claim is a
claim about.
COMMITMENT ACROSS THE LINEAGE
how many of the 863 questions each row committed on, in release order. from
4.1's deep quiet, each release speaks more than the last — until 4.8 steps back toward
restraint. whether that is temperament or training recipe, this scan cannot say; it only says
it moved.
VERSION-TO-VERSION DRIFT
Every number on this page is recomputed in your browser from
the run file — nothing is transcribed. The v2 essay
this page rebuilds is preserved at v3-canvas/study-opus.html.